Twy

COVID-19 – China’s Story

In COVID-19, Epidemic, Flatten The Curve, Social Distancing, World Health on March 22, 2020 at 4:34 pm

Sometime in December of 2019, someone in China purchased a live bat for their dinner, a vendor killed it, put it in a bag and then one of those people got sick.

No one even knew what kind of illness it was yet. Just a weird case of pneumonia. Soon there were three people with a similar illness.  Dr Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who noticed the very first cases of this weird pneumonia, was arrested after getting a message out on social media to some of his university colleagues.  China at the time did not want anyone to know.

Even so, the Chinese Government did notify the World Health Organization about this strange illness on December 31 2019.

Dr Gabriel Leung, a top expert on coronaviruses, said in an interview that he first heard rumours about a possible new type of pneumonia back in December. Others say it’s possible that there were cases as far back as November 2019, but that seems to be just a rumour for now.

The very next day, New Years Day, The World Health Organization received another report from China about the new illness and there were dozens of new cases.

An investigation found that two-thirds of the first patients were vendors at the Huanan Seafood market. It was permanently closed on January 1, 2020. At the time, they thought the people who were sick contracted it from an animal and it was not contagious between humans.

The first person to die was on January 11, 2020, and we don’t even know that person’s name. Ten days later, there were 17 people dead. By January 2o, there were over 500 cases in China and as it turns out, COVID-19 was super contagious.

 

Screen Shot 2020-03-21 at 8.26.56 PM

Fast forward to March 1, 2020 and China reports just over 80,000 cases of COVID-19.

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 2.22.04 PM

Two weeks later, they are holding at around 80,000.

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 2.22.31 PM

Just 4 days after that, Thursday March 19, China makes the claim that they have seen no new cases and they have beaten COVID-19. The Chinese Government announces they are heading back to work and re-opening tourist attractions.

But check out this graph. The numbers went up steadily for months from December to February, then they start dropping and suddenly spike at 15,000 new cases in a single day and then just as suddenly, the numbers take a nosedive. Very odd don’t you agree?

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 2.27.23 PM

The Chinese laid the hammer down and put Wuhan City into a lockdown back in January. Within a day or so, they announced new lockdowns across the country, closed airports, and halted travel.

China was keeping this under wraps as much as possible and telling the world that it wasn’t too bad and not to worry, they had it all under control. They were building 2 special new hospitals in just a couple of days and everything would be fine.

However, pictures and stories were leaking out on social media that painted a very different picture. China had arrested people, including Dr Li Wenliang who first rang the alarm. Another doctor in Wuhan, Dr Ai Fen, was reprimanded for sending a picture of a test result to her colleague back in December.

2 filmmakers in Wuhan City documented life inside the lockdown for 50 days and sent their documentary to the BBC, who aired it and posted it to youtube. That doc, shows that a single hospital in Wuhan had 200 COVID-19 patients back in late January. At that same hospital, over 200 health care workers had contracted the virus. That’s a single hospital. One. Before anything ever happened, there were and still are 20 hospitals in Wuhan. Let’s pretend they each treated 200 patients with the new SARS-like coronavirus. That’s 4000.

In January. If we look back at the graph, China officially reported around 10,000 cases for the whole country that day. The country was already locked down entirely and 2 new hospitals were being built. One hospital had 1400 medical staff and the second had 1600 beds. In total, 16 temporary hospitals were set up in Wuhan alone that each had the capacity for close to 1000 patients at a time.

In March, Dr Ai Fen gave an interview to Renwu, the Chinese version of People Magazine. In that interview she stated that in preparation for a visit from the Chinese President, many patients were simply discharged, sick or not, to make it look like there were fewer people suffering from COVID-19 than there really were.

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 3.20.12 PM

China has kicked out journalists and inside the locked-down areas, things were wild. When government officials visited locked-down areas to brag about the success and make a big show of delivering food and supplies, residents opened their windows and yelled “Fake! Fake! It’s all Fake!”

Is it all fake? Did China lie about their numbers of COVID-19 cases and then lie about having stopped the spread of the virus?

Well, we know that only about 20% of COVID-19 patients require hospital care.

We also know from the BBC documentary filmed inside the lockdown area of Wuhan, that there were people reaching out online to each other and anti-viral drugs were being delivered to patients all over the city who could not get into hospitals.  Let’s say because we saw that video and now we believe that many people were sick and were not admitted to hospitals.

China has a total of 33,000 hospitals not counting any of the temporary hospitals set up just for COVID-19 patients. Let’s just say each hospital in china only admitted 200 people with COVID-19.  My reasoning is that because China suddenly built 16 temporary hospitals in Hubei Province. They didn’t do that for no reason.  That means 6 million 6 hundred thousand people were hospitalized BEFORE we count the patients who went to temporary hospitals.

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 4.31.19 PM

That sounds crazy. Let’s pretend each hospital in China admitted only 50 patients with coronavirus over the course of the epidemic.  That’s roughly 16 patients per month from January to March. Why would they would need 16 extra hospitals in that case, is beyond me, but whatever. I’m not psychic. I don’t know what they were thinking.

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 5.11.15 PM

Let’s say that each temporary hospital treated just 1000 patients each. Even though we know some had higher capacity and not every patient stayed for a whole month. More likely, they stayed 2 weeks each or less and we should double the number, but we won’t worry about that for now. Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 3.50.12 PM

That means there were 25,600 patients with COVID-19 to add to the previous number of 1,650,000. So – our ultra-conservative number of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized is 1,675,600.00. That represents 20% of the total number of cases of COVID-19 in China, which they say is 81,054.  You tell me? Is China lying?

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 5.08.16 PM

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: